Designing a Simulation Model Based on a Favorable Scenario to Predict the Development of Phygital Sports Tourism in Iran's Free Trade and Industrial Zones

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D Candidate of Business Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Iran.

3 Professor, Department of Business Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

10.22034/sms.2025.144298.1526

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to design a scenario-based simulation model to predict the development of phygital sports tourism in Iran's Free Trade and Industrial Zones. A mixed-methods approach (qualitative and quantitative) was employed, which was applied research in terms of its objective and descriptive-analytical in nature. The statistical population for the qualitative section included university professors, managers, and current and former experts from Iran's Free Trade and Industrial Zones. The quantitative section's population consisted of university professors with scientific and practical experience in sports tourism.

In the qualitative phase, purposive snowball sampling was used until theoretical saturation was reached (N=16). For the quantitative phase, judgmental sampling was utilized (N=31). Data collection instruments were semi-structured interviews in the qualitative section and a questionnaire in the quantitative section. Using thematic analysis, the main and sub-themes for the development of phygital sports tourism were identified. Subsequently, in the quantitative phase, the identified influential factors were prioritized using the Fuzzy Delphi method. The Taguchi experimental design method was then employed to extract the scenarios. Finally, the optimal scenario was simulated using System Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling.

The results identified 61 initial codes, 19 sub-themes, and 5 main themes: Modern Governance in Phygital Sports Tourism, Economic, Infrastructural, Smart Technologies, and Phygital Marketing. Modern Governance in Phygital Sports Tourism was identified as the most influential factor. The simulation results indicated that implementing the optimal scenario would increase the development of phygital sports tourism in Iran's Free Trade and Industrial Zones by up to 83%. This model provides a practical framework for tourism managers and policymakers to strategically enhance phygital sports tourism development in these zones.

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Main Subjects

Sports Marketing Studies

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 03 November 2025

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