Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
2 Ph.D. Student in Sport Management, University of Kurdistan
Abstract
This study aims to develop scenarios for attracting foreign investment in Iraqi football up to the 2035 horizon. Its core objective is to answer the key question of how, by identifying critical factors and environmental uncertainties, probable future pathways can be mapped and operational strategies for sustainable foreign investment attraction can be formulated. The statistical population included all key domestic and foreign stakeholders related to foreign investment in Iraqi football. Using purposive sampling, 27 experts and specialists (14 domestic: including football federation managers, Ministry of Sports officials, professional club managers, and sports economics experts; and 13 foreign: including international sports investment consultants, potential investor representatives, and university professors specializing in football economics and management) were selected based on theoretical-practical mastery, willingness to participate, and accessibility criteria. Data were collected using semi-structured in-depth interviews and open-ended questionnaires. The validity of the instruments was confirmed through expert opinions and content validation methods, and reliability was ensured using Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.87) and the test-retest method. Data analysis was performed using the six-step Leipzig-Roland Berger scenario modeling method. The findings led to the identification of 33 key factors influencing the future of foreign investment attraction in Iraqi football. Subsequent analysis extracted four critical uncertainties: "Legal Transparency," "Adoption of New Technologies," "Political Stability," and "Consumer Behavior Change." Based on the intersection of the two main axes, "Legal Transparency" and "Adoption of New Technologies," four probable scenarios for 2035 were formulated: 1) Smart Sports Nation (stable legal environment + high technology adoption), 2) Slow but Safe (stable legal environment + low technology adoption), 3) Digital Chaos (unstable legal environment + high technology adoption), and 4) Stagnation Zone (unstable legal environment + low technology adoption). Finally, the overarching strategy of "Integrated Development of Iraqi Football Focusing on a Secure Legal Environment and the Use of Smart Technologies" was proposed as an operational solution. This strategy emphasizes the necessity of simultaneous actions in two domains: first, strengthening legal institutions and creating transparent, reliable frameworks to support investors; and second, investing in digital infrastructure and training stakeholders to adopt new technologies such as artificial intelligence and Web 3.0. The overall conclusion of the research is that without the coordinated and simultaneous implementation of these two pillars, attracting sustainable foreign investment will not be feasible, and Iraq will lag in regional competition.
Keywords
- Strategic Foresight
- International Investment
- Sports Governance
- Digital Transformation
- Iraq Football Ecosystem
Main Subjects
)